Trajectories of Changes in Renal Function in Patients with Acute Heart Failure

Background: Changes in renal function have been associated with differential outcomes in patients with acute heart failure (HF). However, individual trajectories of changes in renal function are unknown, and it is unclear whether they relate to different clinical characteristics and clinical outcomes. Our aim was to investigate the prognostic importance of individual trajectories of change in renal function in acute HF.

Methods: This was a retrospective, observational analysis from the double-blind, randomized, placebo-controlled PROTECT trial in patients with acute HF. We identified and internally validated 8 different renal trajectories among 1897 patients by visual inspection of inhospital serum creatinine changes. The primary outcome measure was all-cause mortality at 180 days. Mean age was 70 +/- 12 years; 70% were male, and mean baseline estimated glomerular filtration rate was 49.0 mL/min/1.73m(2).

Results: A total of 8 different trajectories was established. The most prevalent trajectories were an inhospital bump (19.0%), a sustained increase (17.6%) and a dip (14.5%) in serum creatinine. Overall, the clinical characteristics of patients in different trajectories were remarkably similar. Crude 180-day mortality rates ranged from 12.0% in the trajectory, with no significant changes to 18.3% in the trajectory of sustained increase without significant differences. Overall, after multivariable adjustment, there was no trajectory of changes in renal function that was associated with significantly better or worse outcomes.

Conclusions: Trajectories of changes in renal function in acute HF differ considerably on the patient level. Despite these differences, clinical characteristics and outcomes were similar, therefore, questioning the prognostic importance of changes in renal function in acute HF.