Abstract
A sufficient density of free electrons and strong electric fields are
the basic requirements to start any electrical discharge. In the context
of thunderstorm discharges it has become clear that in addition droplets
and or ice particles are required to enhance the electric field to
values above breakdown. In our recent study [1] we have shown that these
three ingredients have to interplay to allow for lightning inception,
triggered by an extensive air shower event. The extensive air showers
are a very stochastic natural phenomenon, creating highly coherent
bursts of extreme electron density in our atmosphere. Predicting these
electron density bursts accurately one has to take the uncertainty of
the input variables into account. To this end we use uncertainty
quantification methods, like in [2], to post-process our detailed Monte
Carlo extensive air shower simulations, done with the CORSIKA [3]
software package, which provides an efficient and elegant way to
determine the distribution of the atmospheric electron density
enhancements. We will present the latest results. [1] Dubinova, A.,
Rutjes, C., Ebert, E., Buitink, S., Scholten, O., and Trinh, G. T. N.
"Prediction of Lightning Inception by Large Ice Particles and Extensive
Air Showers." PRL 115 015002 (2015) [2] G.J.A. Loeven, J.A.S. Witteveen,
H. Bijl, Probabilistic collocation: an efficient nonintrusive approach
for arbitrarily distributed parametric uncertainties, 45th AIAA
Aerospace Sciences Meeting, Reno, Nevada, 2007, AIAA-2007-317 [3] Heck,
Dieter, et al. CORSIKA: A Monte Carlo code to simulate extensive air
showers. No. FZKA-6019. 1998.
Original language | English |
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Journal | EGU General Assembly |
Volume | 18 |
Publication status | Published - 1-Apr-2016 |
Event | EGU General Assembly 2016 - Vienna, Austria Duration: 17-Apr-2016 → 22-Apr-2016 http://www.egu2016.eu |