Abstract
Will a new smartphone application diffuse deeply in the population or will it sink into oblivion soon? To predict this, we argue that common models of spread of innovations based on cascade dynamics or epidemics may not be fully adequate. Therefore we propose a novel stochastic network dynamics modeling the spread of a new technological asset, whose adoption is based on the word-of-mouth and the persuasion strength increases the more the product is diffused. We carry on a mean field analysis on large scale graphs to show off how the parameters of the model and, possibly, the initial diffusion of the asset, determine whether the spread of the asset is successful or not. In particular we study the case of a complete graph using both a deterministic approximation of the system and a direct analysis of the stochastic process. Thereafter we consider the case of two complete disjoint subgraphs through a deterministic approximation, pointing out many common features with the previous case. Finally we present numerical simulations showing that similar behaviors are present in very general graphs.
| Original language | English |
|---|---|
| Title of host publication | Proceedings of the 22nd International Symposium on the Mathematical Theory of Networks and Systems |
| ISBN (Electronic) | 978-1-5323-1358-5 |
| Publication status | Published - Jul-2016 |
| Externally published | Yes |